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Bird Flu-Worst-Case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird fluHospitals see surge in flu patients
or the avian influenza and how it couldoverwhelming staff and supplies, only those
become a global pandemic. What would amost likely to live given access to limited
pandemic really mean? The federal governmentavailable  ventilators
just launched a 7 billion dollar program to
help the prevention and out break of a birdHealthcare workers and first responders out
flu pandemic. There have only been 83 deathssick or stay home to care for ill family
from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Healthmembers
experts have not yet seen evidence of human
to human transmission. So what does it mean?Public events are canceled and schools are
And why is everyone so worried about aclosed
pandemic?This new strain of flu virus would
be more resistant than other normal fluGovernment offices closed, non essential
strains and if it turns into a form thatservices  shut  down
passes easily from person to person, we would
have little immunity to it. Millions couldSocial services reduced or eliminated.
become ill and millions would die. Once itServices  still  functioning  are overwhelmed
starts to spread it could move rapidly around
the world infecting millions and affectingPublic  transportation  halted
the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which
has estimated that a bird flu pandemicAir traffic halted due to air traffic
lasting a year could, cost the global economycontrollers, airport staff and flight crews
up to $800 billion. The economic toll on theout  sick
world economy will be catastrophic. What is
the worst-case scenario and how might itInterstate commerce greatly reduced with
develop?Here is how a bird flu pandemic mighttruck drivers, warehouse and rail workers out
unfold:Outbreaks of avian flu in birdssick
continue in several additional countries
outside of Southeast Asia including Russia,Food deliveries, gas deliveries, other
Africa  and  the  Middle  Eastessential  supplies all reduced or eliminated
Human  cases  of  bird  flu  increaseGrocery stores close due to shipments being
eliminated
Health experts confirm first human-to-human
transmissionsFood distribution chain from farm to stores
breaks  down
Flu screening is stepped up at airports
around the world for passengers coming fromTravel restricted, quarantines mandatory,
infected  countriesenforced  by  National  Guard
Health care workers show signs of increasedWidespread looting and riots over food
exposureshortages  and  access  to  healthcare
Air travel spreads virus to all corners ofLocal, State police and National Guard
the  globe  within  3  monthsoverwhelmed
First confirmed human transmission casesSocial  structure  breaks  down
appear in Europe Russia, and the United
StatesDomestic violence increases as people are
forced  to  stay  home
Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespread
reaching  epidemic  statusLoss of workers affects all businesses
across the economy, including finance,
Regional stockpiles of antivirals quicklysanitation, utilities, internet,
dwindle, new high volume production anddistribution, energy, retail, tourism and
distribution  is  6  months  offtravel
International flights are reduced orUtility outages increase as coal shipments
eliminated  to help contain spread of the fluare reduced and minimum required staffs at
power  plants  and  water plants are out sick
Billions are lost on international commerce,
affecting  millions  of jobs around the worldFuneral homes are overwhelmed as bodies
stack  up
US imports from Asian factories halted as
Asian  workers  fall ill, US inventories drop2nd  wave  of  pandemic  bird  flu  hits
International  trade  devastatedGlobal economy will take years to recover
from catastrophic losses and loss of trained
US economy feels effects of loss ofemployees who diedDoes the above scare you?
productivity due to millions of workers outThink it won't happen? Well this is the exact
sickscenario your local, state and federal
governments are training and planning for.
Financial markets hit by panic selling, goldHow would you survive? It has always been
prices  soarrecommended to keep 3 days of supplies on
hand to survive a natural disaster. We have
Run  on  banks  as investors convert to cashseen how the federal government handles
natural disasters.



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