Bird Flu-Worst-Case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or theFinancial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices soar
avian influenza and how it could become a globalRun on banks as investors convert to cash
pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean? TheHospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming
federal government just launched a 7 billion dollarstaff and supplies, only those most likely to live given
program to help the prevention and out break of aaccess to limited available ventilators
bird flu pandemic. There have only been 83 deathsHealthcare workers and first responders out sick or
from avian flu worldwide since 2003. Health expertsstay home to care for ill family members
have not yet seen evidence of human to humanPublic events are canceled and schools are closed
transmission. So what does it mean? And why isGovernment offices closed, non essential services
everyone so worried about a pandemic?This newshut down
strain of flu virus would be more resistant than otherSocial services reduced or eliminated. Services still
normal flu strains and if it turns into a form thatfunctioning are overwhelmed
passes easily from person to person, we would havePublic transportation halted
little immunity to it. Millions could become ill and millionsAir traffic halted due to air traffic controllers, airport
would die. Once it starts to spread it could movestaff and flight crews out sick
rapidly around the world infecting millions andInterstate commerce greatly reduced with truck
affecting the lives of everyone. The World Bank,drivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick
which has estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting aFood deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential
year could, cost the global economy up to $800supplies all reduced or eliminated
billion. The economic toll on the world economy will beGrocery stores close due to shipments being
catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario andeliminated
how might it develop?Here is how a bird flu pandemicFood distribution chain from farm to stores breaks
might unfold:Outbreaks of avian flu in birds continue indown
several additional countries outside of Southeast AsiaTravel restricted, quarantines mandatory, enforced
including Russia, Africa and the Middle Eastby National Guard
Human cases of bird flu increaseWidespread looting and riots over food shortages
Health experts confirm first human-to-humanand access to healthcare
transmissionsLocal, State police and National Guard overwhelmed
Flu screening is stepped up at airports around theSocial structure breaks down
world for passengers coming from infected countriesDomestic violence increases as people are forced to
Health care workers show signs of increasedstay home
exposureLoss of workers affects all businesses across the
Air travel spreads virus to all corners of the globeeconomy, including finance, sanitation, utilities, internet,
within 3 monthsdistribution, energy, retail, tourism and travel
First confirmed human transmission cases appear inUtility outages increase as coal shipments are
Europe Russia, and the United Statesreduced and minimum required staffs at power plants
Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespreadand water plants are out sick
reaching epidemic statusFuneral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack up
Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle, new2nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits
high volume production and distribution is 6 monthsGlobal economy will take years to recover from
offcatastrophic losses and loss of trained employees
International flights are reduced or eliminated to helpwho diedDoes the above scare you? Think it won't
contain spread of the fluhappen? Well this is the exact scenario your local,
Billions are lost on international commerce, affectingstate and federal governments are training and
millions of jobs around the worldplanning for. How would you survive? It has always
US imports from Asian factories halted as Asianbeen recommended to keep 3 days of supplies on
workers fall ill, US inventories drophand to survive a natural disaster. We have seen
International trade devastatedhow the federal government handles natural
US economy feels effects of loss of productivitydisasters.
due to millions of workers out sick